Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 7

Breaking Germany-Russia partnership benefits Poland. Aiding Ukraine supports our ally and hurts Russian imperial ambitions. Putting pressure on Germany to aid Ukraine (now also with tanks!) prevents Berlin's return to amicable relations with Moscow in the foreseeable future. Building transatlantic energy relations (all these LNG terminals) helps to close European markets to Russian energy resources, not only today, but also tomorrow.

Oh, I do care about how many Ukrainians die and hope their casualties will be as low as possible for them to achieve their war goals. If you do not believe I do it for humanitarian or moral reasons, than consider the practical ones: if Ukraine manages to keep its independence in this war, it will be integrated into NATO and become our not only formal, but also closest and most valued ally within the Alliance. Since Russia is the only enemy able to even scratch NATO, and we together will form its first line of defense, we will be working very closely. Of course I hope our neighbor and ally manages to keep its strength - and a hope for demographic rebirth in future years.

I also do believe that Ukraine's loss in this war would not end conflicts in Europe. On the contrary, it would make them more possible. Russia overconfident with its victory 'over whole NATO' in Ukraine would be more willing to test the Alliance, and that may escalate into a full scale war, only this time on a much larger scale. Hence, I hope that Ukraine manages to prevail and keep its independence. Such victory would result in a deep crisis of Russian statehood and open up another 'window of opportunity' (like after the fall of Soviet Union) for more countries - like Moldavia, Georgia and perhaps one day even Belarus - to escape the toxic influence of Moscow.

Wow....what an explosion!!!! There something BIG did go off....something very big!!!

Which makes Europe poorer (higher energy prices). Is that really that much of a benefit?


They probably will but realistically they are going to lose a large chunk of their territory and industry, most of their emigrants won't go back and the economy will require a Marshall-plan-level aid. Plus, with an eternal casus belli against Russia they will be more of a liability rather than an asset.


Don't make a mistake of taking Russians for idiots. This conflict showed them clearly that a war against NATO would be a suicide for them.

Prices of energy resources are already going down. The shock was temporary and a new equilibrium is being established - fortunately this time without Russian's product.


Russia did it itself by invading starting a full-scale open war in Europe, on EU's and NATO's border, despite numerous warnings. Now we just have to make sure, they pay a hefty price and not achieve their aims. Certainly Russia would have to think twice before invading NATO-aligned Ukraine. This damages the ambitions of rebuilding the Russian empire.

Then again these ambitions are precisely the reason why all non-aligned countries in the region are now trying to gain NATO membership ASAP.

@Korvinus

Hmm... I have to say there is certain measure of truth and common sense in what you say.

However, all the explanations that people gave me here (and for which I thank them) assume for Russia the role of enemy in the future. Why can't we just get rid of Putin and his mafia, facilitate the transition to proper democracy in Russia (like we did in Ukraine), and have Russia as a friend instead of an eternal enemy?

Just an idea.

...but a border with hostile NATO should not upset Russia at all since NATO is cute and cuddly and never bombs anyone...Like Serbia...Serbia bombed itself.

It is up to the Russian people who are responsible for what Russia does and that they have allowed Putin to remain their leader. They have had plenty of opportunities to de-putinify themselves but most of them support him.

Russia does this siege mentality thing where they convince themselves (or tell themselves anyway) everyone is against them, then commits aggressive acts against others, and then uses that backlash to those aggressive acts as proof that everyone is against them and justifies their aggression.

That's because you are a foreign transplant that doesn't count/matter.

Pootie is running out of tanks and guys to operate them.
I see where russia deployed 1,500 mothballed tanks from a Siberian dump.
ru$$ia's credit line must have run out with N. Korea.
Meanwhile, headlines today read; Russian Major, Unit 'Missing' as Ukraine Gets Dnieper Left Bank Foothold.
And two more drones shot down over Moscow last night instilling the fear of God into the russian citizens.

If nothing else, Russia is simply asking for that illegal gift back before the salivating DC warmongers can put their paws on the part Russia would rather keep. Like Crimea and the naval base.

Well then this "realization" is not correct.

There are many objective reasons why Ukraine deserves to get smashed, and many objective reasons why Poland will not be touched.

I will try to be brief:

1) As Kania said - NATO. Russians are not suicidal, and neither is NATO, I hope. Russia cannot go toe-to-toe against NATO in a conventional war, due to a huge demographic imbalance, large economic disparity, and so on. So then this war will have to be nuclear. Hence - not suicidal.

2) Ukraine is a core Russian territory. Parts of it, have been part of Russia for nearly a millennium. Poland is not such a country. When Poland was under Russia, it was always kept separate, with its very own unique conditions. If no Russian ruler in the last 500 years had the idea of joining Poland to Russia, why would the current ones suddenly have this idea?

3) At one point - a Russian ruler literally refused the Polish crown. This was Ivan the Terrible, the same guy that added a good half of Russia's modern territory. This is actually quite a good example of why Russia is reluctant to actually absorb Poland. Here are the reasons Ivan gave for not wanting the Polish Crown (for which apparently he had the most support of all the candidates):

Ivan could not imagine that he had to fuss about the votes of Polish voters and also pay for them ...
If Ivan is suitable, then let Poland act as it should. Let them come to him and beat with their foreheads, like all those who come to him daily to ask for some kind of mercy.

He said that it was not an example for him that the emperor and the French king sent gifts to voters in Warsaw. In fact, there are no sovereigns in Europe who would have descended from a continuously reigning house for more than 200 years, except for a descendant of the Roman Caesars and the Turkish Sultan.

Everyone knows this, and Ivan does not need to beg for favors like others

4) Basically - Poles would be too huge a pain in the ass for Russia, to ever be worth it. Ukraine is as close to us as can be, and look what a sh!tshow that relationship is. With Poland being attached to Russia it would probably be quite explosive indeed. Again - this is why Poland has always been kept separate, even when together with us. While Ukraine was treated quite differently.

Exactly. We always were for everybody - that's just the kind of folks we are. The European Union helped us to adjust our law and economy to acceptable European standards, gave us the membership with all the rights and pretty much flooded us with money, and we are a pain in the ass even for them - and we intend to keep being just that, this is our survival strategy. Why does it take a Russian to state the obvious here? :)

OK, so does anyone have any ideas about how to make Russia a friend in the future, rather than an eternal enemy?

Methinks the russian doth protest too much... I never said 'incorporate into russia' I had in mind some kind of abortion like a second prl... or post wwii finland... neither is acceptable.


Nope.

Dissolve NATO. Only in the sick Polish minds, Putin wants Paris and London.

That's the eternal advantage of a democracy....the people have the possibility and recurring occasion to show a leader the finger when they are being led into a war they definitely don't want....neither the Germans nor the Russians had/have that chance!

And yes, I think Putin is suicidal, that war is nothing but (or going insane...dementia because of old age is also a possibility...)

Ok... can you propose some framework where this makes sense?

I will try to help:

1) We somehow force Poland to do a Polexit, and then the next day they join the Customs Union?

2) We successfully invade Poland. The West stabs it in the back again. We occupy it briefly, and then impose some ass-backwards government style upon it, as best we Russians know how? Maybe, we turn Poland back into a strong presidential republic, and devilishly weaken the courts and press - since this is like garlic to a vampire for us Russians. Correct?

3) sorry, I'm actually struggling to come up with another scenario...

In the absence of a Russian annexation, and given that Russia no longer has a state ideology to export, what exactly are we executing when we "puppet" the Poles?

And Germany.
Russia State TV guest issues ominous warning, 'Berlin and Paris will be ours'.
Wouldn't that ever make your day, Novi.

Putin is clocking at an almost 80% approval rate. A US president would have a never-ending orgasm with those numbers...

Who wants to end up in the gulag....

Also one of the best parts of western style democracy....you can insult your leader after your hearts content and nobody ends up in some gulag for that!

It's just a lesson every country bordering Russia draws from their common history.

Unless Russia is prevented by a network of alliances it will always seek to dominate and conquer or vassalize its neighbours.

That's why countries that in 1989 managed to free themselves from Moscow's grasp asked and later even demanded to be let inside NATO, not shuning away from common blackmail (Polish 'you let us in or we will seek our own nuclear weapons, thus undermining NPT'). That was just our raison d'etat.

And guess what? The current history proved us right. Countries that did not take advantage of the window of opportunity of 90s/early 2000s were either partitioned by Russia (Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine) or reduced to a vassal status (Belarus).

Now the countries of central Asia, which for geographical reasons could not join NATO, are rapidly moving under Chinese protection to seek security from Russia.

Basically for them even Comrade Xi is preferable to Putin as their overlord.


Ukraine had a history before getting annexed into Russia. Later its just a cycle of occupation and from time to time a massacre. Not very flattering for the Russians.

Please show me this book, I will read it.

What book? Ukraine is an independent country no matter how much you denny, it's not part of Russia. And there was independent Ukrainian states before, like Kyivan Rus and Cossack Hetmanate. Russia's state tradition only goes back to Muscovite knezdom, not exactly more ancient than Ukrainians.

Strange...

Are you aware that the Rus state was founded by man named Rurik, who founded a little dynasty called the Rurikovich Dynasty? What country, located in Eastern Europe, had exclusively Rurikovich rulers up until they went extinct many centuries later?

What country, can trace back its ruler, from the current president, one by one, back to the founding of Kiev?

Which country held the seat of the Church leader of all orthodox Slavs east of Poland?

Which country used a mongrel race of outlaws called Cossacks for centuries as a frontier border protection force?

Name me a single text within at least 7 centuries of the founding of Kiev, which contains such a word as Ukraine?

What did Vladimir the Great or Yaroslav the Wise call themselves?

I am angry at myself for allowing myself to be baited once again into this retarded debate. Go educate yourself.

@Bobko
Nice try... but still, you fail. 1000 years ago Kyiv was the capital of Kyivan Rus', a proud European state, ruled by a dynasty established by a Varangian prince. Back then Moscow was just a backwater place not mentioned in any sources (first mention of it as a minor town - AD 1147). Moscow's claims to the tradition of Kyivan Rus' nothing but a failed effort to find a better tradition than the one it actually has.

"Berlin, Dresden, Prague and Ljubljana - everything will be ours"

focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/im-russen-tv-berlin-dresden-prag-und-ljubljana-alles-wird-unser-sein_id_201373595.html

The propagandist Nikolai Vavilov raves on Russian state television about the restoration of the Russian Empire. In his crude imagination he wants to conquer Berlin, Dresden, Prague and Ljubljana. ....

...erm....what's wrong with this guy!

On the show he explains: "This will continue to develop and we will more and more take on the role that the Russian Empire had. I didn't joke in the last program that Berlin, Dresden, Prague and Ljubljana - everything will be ours. Why actually? Because it was! You see, when we invaded Paris in 815, Berlin in 1941, at the end of the 18th century - it's no coincidence. Russia is the largest country in Europe, a huge power." .....

...that is definitely suicidal thinking!

Strange. He didn`t mention Warsaw. How are they going to conquer Berlin? Attacking from the south?? Yes! They will land in Russian friendly Austria go north to Berlin!

THAT is your problem with that statement???

It is.

I wonder what Putin is trying to achieve with all those Vavilovs, Simonjans and Soloviovs. They sound like they are genuinely retarded... or mad. Maybe that's his plan? He wants to convince the world that Russia has collectively gone mad, so it has to be appeased (or else!).

You still want to see rational thought behind everything....but maybe we have to give that up!

Yes, Russia is just one big lunatic asylum. Much bigger than Poland which also is one under PiS.


No. I was wondering how the Polish aid should look like if Russians attack Berlin from the south. An expedition to do the fighting in the German territory or attack on Kónigsberg.