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Posts by Tacitus  

Joined: 6 Jul 2017 / Male ♂
Warnings: 2 - OQ
Last Post: 25 Mar 2024
Threads: 2
Posts: 1,354

Displayed posts: 1356 / page 2 of 46
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Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

After, Germany FINALLY AFTER 7 FRICKIN' YEARS had to give Poles free access to the German labor market (and which they were still against)

With good reason though, as evidenced by the UK. In hindsight it is very obvious that this the smart way to do. Germany was suffering from high unemployment at the time, and letting in competition from Eastern Europe probably would have turned poorer Germans against the EU and foreigners. When the restriction was lifted, Germany needed more workers and we have seen a large number of Poles emigrating to Germany in the last few years. And Germany remains a very attractive destination for Poles.

thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/285368,Germany-most-popular-destination-for-Poles-seeking-work

Currently many European citizens from Eastern Europe are emigrating to Germany. 2015 saw 147.910 Poles arriving in Germany. (Even more arrived from Rumania with 174.000)

zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-07/eu-buerger-migration-nach-deutschland-rekordhoch-rumaenien-osteuropa

Had Gemany followed the UK's lead in 2004 then German might be challenging English as lingua franca of the EU

Firstly, German seems to be quite popular in Poland.

goethe.de/en/uun/akt/20512365.html

In fact there has been a noticeable increase in interest for German language classes:

monitor.icef.com/2015/04/german-language-study-on-the-rise-worldwide

Let's not kid ourself, there is no way German could supplant English as the leading language in Europe, even if a few millions more could speak it. English is the language everybody speaks, and this won't change. Let's just hope that Chinese won't usurp English as world language, because that would be far more difficult to learn for Europeans ;

Germany has NO cultural relevance or soft power*. It's all brute economic force.

I think this is your bias speaking here. Germany has due historically reasons focuesd on its' soft power over the years, and analyzer acknowledge the extent of this.

thelocal.de/20131121/germany-number-one-for-soft-power
Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

When it starts showing concern to other EU countries maybe they'll return the favor and not one second before.

You are aware that Berlin is (along with London) the main reason why Poland was admitted so early to the EU in the first place right, when other countries like France were against EU enlargement? And that Germany remains the top destination for Poles so I am not sure what your outrage is all about. The German labour market was not ready for that many new arrivals back then, plain and simple. And apparantly, neither was the UK. Strangely the Brexiteers like to complain that the EU forced them to take in all the Polish immigrants even though it would have been entirely within London's power to prevent it.

That being said I am very happy that so many Poles are working in Germany. There are in general hard-working. well integrated, and unlike e.g. those from Rumania und Bulgaria, are less likely to abuse our social security system.

Here is also interesting article about Germany and soft power:

economist.com/news/europe/21663257-once-language-schiller-and-goethe-then-hitler-german-hip-again-sprechen-sie-power

This article also shows how Germany uses soft power in the Baltic states.

ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/51412
Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

How many allies Germany really has? France, Austria and Russia?

The better question, who doesn't support Germany regularly in Europe? In most crucial matters, e.g. regarding Greece, sanctions against Russia et al. most countries agree with Germany.

And which of those countries do you sincerely expect to side with Poland against the EU when in question? No one was willing to support Warsaw against the reelection of Tusk. And since both the EU and Germany offer all countries of the Seven sea initiave better economic incencitive, you can be sure that they won't side with Warsaw against Brussels or Berlin.

The USA won't be of much help either in most matters because they are shifting their attention to Asia.
Tacitus   
9 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

I'm rather fond of German myself but I can't blame European youth for turning away from it.

So you just ignore all the verifiable evidence I have shown you (more demand for German language courses) because of your personal impression? That is not very academic of you.

Merkel Wave of Pseudo-Refugees or are about micro-endeavors (tied to economics) and don't translate into real soft power.

We might have a different understanding what the term "soft power" means. I am using the definition as stated in the article of the Economist. Economic influence is for me part of soft power, whereas military capabiillities are hard power. The way things are handled within the EU certainly don't qualify as hard power, they are done by votes and debates. The only time a country acted blunt and rash recently was when Poland tried to prevent the reelection of Tusk against the wishes of all other member states.

017. And Greece can't afford German austerity.

It is Greek austerity and I don't think this is related to the topic at hand. Well maybe except as an example as to why the blatant attempt of Greece to blackmail its' creditors back in 2015 was doomed to fail against the united consensus of the other Euro members.
Tacitus   
9 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

Greece Austerity

1) Austerity was demanded by all of Greece's creditors. In fact several countries were far more keen on punishing Greece than Germany.

Poorer than Greece: the EU countries that reject a new Athens bailout

theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/09/poorer-than-greece-the-eu-countries-that-reject-a-new-athens-bailout

2) You (and many Greeks) seem to have a very strange understanding on how negotiations between two countries work. Tsipras promised that he would end austerity and Euro would keep the Euro if the Greeks voted No in the referendum. All European politicians stated this was not an option. Greece could either accept austerity or leave the Euro. Tsipras was simply dishonest about how the situation looked like. He told the Greeks that they could have their cake and eat it. No country was willing to make any concessions to Greece, and if they had held a referendum in any European country, probably a majority would have voted to kick Greece out of the Euro.

Of course, Tsipras could have drawn the conclusion that having failed to get any concessions, in order to respect the referendum, he'd have to lead Greece out of the Eurozone. However since polls indicated that the Greeks also wanted to keep the Euro (which in return just shows you how bizarre that whole referendum was) he decided to agree to the demands. That was his decision, no one else.

Greece lost 30 % of its GDP with not real prospect for recovery ever because the Euro is not a currency*,

The Greek economy was artificially bloated by reckless public spending and other measures, it is now closer to what it actually produces. It will take Greece many years until it recovers to the standards it held pre 2009, but this time, it will be honesty earned. And as a bonus, it looks like they have learned how to properly fight tax evasion and organize a proper bureaucracy. I just pity the young Greeks who have to pay the price of their parents excesses.

A fellow Greek student of mine told me an interesting story about his small home town. A few years ago, he passed the very difficult test to get a job in the Greek bureaucracy. Yet there are currently no positions open. The one spot he could have applied for is held by a middle aged man who got his job two decades ago because he was friend with the local mayor. The position requires a university education, yet the man hasn't even finished high school. According to proposals by the Troika, such obviously unqualified civil servants should be fired, but consecutive governments have refused to do so. My fellow student decided to leave the country eventually because he has given up hope that anything will change.
Tacitus   
10 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

True it is possible that some politicians suspected that the Greek numbers were altered. That being said it is very unlikely that they supected how bad they looked in reality, nor could they have known that given how far Greece went to falsify data. And even then, who could have expected that Greek politicians would act increasingly more stupid and spend money so recklessly?

It is also worth pointing out that back then therr were hardly any ways to check the national deficite independently from the data the national governments provided. You had to somewhat trust them on this.

It wouldn't have been nice diplomatic form to say "Sorry, we don't believe you.

I agree. Germany was btw. initially against Greece's membership, but relented when Greece mentioned the 2WW and after France pushed for it.

didn't build any escape mechanisms into the Euro

It is always possible for a country to leave the Euro, they just need to start printing their own money. Greece had plans for reintroducing the Drachme, but backed out after thinking about it. I have asked my fellow Greek student why the Greeks want to keep the Euro despite its' difficulties, he told me that many are afraid Greece could end up as Venezuela with the Drachme.
Tacitus   
10 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

The Greeks called it "creative accounting", if I recall correctly

And to be fair, all governments can be creative with their accounting. France's current budget deficite would probably look worse without it. It can also take different forms, for example, most European defence budgets would look even worse if pensions were not included, which many governments do.

But what Greece did was unprecedented in scale.

So they're ending up like Venezuela with the Euro

As bad as the situation in Greece is, it is far worse in Venezuela. At least basic products like toilet paper are still available. The fact that Greece heavily depends on imports is another reason why they dont want to lose the Euro.
Tacitus   
10 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

I have that sinking feeling we're looking toward a PEGIDA-AfD coalition come end of autumn '17 if Merkel's party doesn't spruce up their act some!

The AfD might not even make it into the parliament. Ever since they revealed that their leader have schown sympathy with openly racist and revanchist ideology, the AfD has lost massively in popularity, and Trumps election also reminded many Germans what happens if you vote for guys like this. Merkel on the other hand benefited from this.

Hungary, Austria, Serbia, Greece.... she tried to force them to follow her policy with zero consulation.

Those countries (with the exclusion of Austria) had been begging for help since the start of 2015. Merkel provided them with relief, and particulary Greece was grateful for this.
Tacitus   
11 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Germany has fallen under that line.

And it will continue to do so probably until 2023. And as everyone could tell Trump, Germany and other countries are thus fully living up to their commitment. The agreement was that Nato members should reach the 2% in 2024 not 2017.

Besides, I find it incredibly arrogant of the USA to accuse other NATO allies of freeloading. Nato has so far been involved in one war. When it came to the defence of the USA. Hundreds of Europeans died in Afghanistan. Dont their sacrifice count for anything?
Tacitus   
11 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

"Members that fell short" at the time "promised to meet their obligations by 2024.

So no problems here. We have to reach the target until 2024, not before. Why is it so difficult for some Americans to understand this? We have to reach the target by 2024, nor 2017!

Such gripes are hardly new.

Such demands were even more ridiculous back then. I mean would anyone suggest today that there were not enough soldiers in Europe during the Cold War?

Those European soldiers died in Afghanistan for the defense of the USA after 9/11. How many Americans have died on behalf of Europe?
Tacitus   
11 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

@Lyzko

This is hardly surprising. The SPD wants to distance itself from Merkel because they intend to win the election and have their own cancellor. Usually the SPD is the strongest rival of the CDU, it only has happened twice before that they formed a government together.

Der Spiegel is Germany's most respected news magazine, but they are also since their inception fundamentally against the CDU and want the SPD to govern.

It is only natural that not every party member agree to everything Merkel does, we are living in a democracy after all. That being said, it is important to note that Merkel's biggest advantage is that she is still irreplacable for the CDU. There is nobody who comes even close to her approval ratings or her reputation as chancellor, the CDU needs her to win the election this year. Von der Leyen, while often cited as her likeliest succesor, is often seen as boring and less likely to attract votes.

I'll anser your emails properly later, once I have the time. :)
Tacitus   
11 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

You seem to forget the HUGE sacrifice that America made in Europe during WWII

I don't forget them, but they are simply not relevant for the discussion at hand. We are talking about Nato here, and whether or not Europe has recently failed up to its' commitment.

The current argument by Trump is that Europe has been "freeloading" on American support. As pointed out however, there has been only one instance so far when Nato had to defend one of its' member states and in which the European allies fully lived up to their commitment. The war in question is btw. far from over, and will likely be a drain on ressources and lifes for quite some time. That the president of the USA dares to belittle European contribution while there are still Europeans stationed in Afghanistan is nothing short of insulting.

It also absurd that Trump claims that European countries "owe" money to the USA. Firstly, even if member states agree to spend more on defence, this money won't go to the USA, but will be spent on each country's own military. Secondly, even if Europeans spend more on defence, would this necessarily mean that American tax payers would have to pay less overall? Trump has after all announced to increase American defence budget, despite the fact that other Nato have also started to increase spending. Even if Nato allies would met the 2% aim already in 2017, the USA would still be paying more than before.
Tacitus   
11 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

o be sure, nobody's ever accused DER SPIEGEL of being (horrors!!) "objective" in her news reporting

No media outlet is truly objective, just like in every country they have a specific target audience. That being said Der Spiegel has very good investigative journalists, and they are particulary good in exposing scandals and they are very reliable when it comes to presenting facts. It is just important to keep their critical attitude in mind e.g. when reading articles about Merkel's foreign policy (in general they think Merkel is too hard on Greece, too soft on Erdogan and not vocal enough about the detoriation of democracy in Poland and Hungary).

One amusing story which highlights their bias against the CDU. Der Spiegel was vehently against every foreign political decision the first chancellor Konrad Adenauer made (although they did have respect for the man), particulary his decision to anchor West Germany to the West and thus (supposedly) perpetuated division of Germany. Their opposition to his government even laid the ground for the incident that cemented his reputation.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiegel_Affair

In a recent edition that celebrated an anniversary of their magazine, they covered every post-war German chancellor until now. In the passage about Adenauer, they put much emphasis on his (undeniable) more controversial domestic decisions, while they only talked about his foreign policy in passing. They sheepishly ended the passage with the statement: Today, most historians agree that Adenauer was right on the most important foreign political questions of his time. That is a bit odd, considering that Adenauer's lasting legacy was mostly in him laying the framework in which German foreign policy works until today.

Don't lie, they were not begging for Germany to give hundreds of thousands of people to cross borders illegally

@ mafketis

Don't lie, they were not begging for Germany to give hundreds of thousands of people to cross borders illegally

They were begging for other countries to relief the pressure on them by taking in some of the refugees. In fact Tsiprashas afterwards expressed his gratitude to Merkel for her decision.

global.handelsblatt.com/politics/how-greece-learned-to-love-merkel-484454

Merkel knows the fragile situation in the Balkans better than most Western leaders. With the decision to take in those refugees who are still on the Balkan route, she probably prevented an escalition of the situation that might have ended in violence, which could have happened if the countries in the Balkans had decided to shuffle to refugees around until they were stuck by fences.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/05/angela-merkel-europe-unfinished-business-balkans
Tacitus   
11 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

@Lyzko

Well, it is quite obvious that Merkel is a very skilled diplomate if nothing else, and personally speaking, I'll likely vote for her again this year.

A crying pity some of that "pragmatism" didn't extend to consulting her neighbors concerning the Greece-bailout

I have to disagree with you here. I think the way Merkel dealt with Greece is one of the best example for her multilateral approach to diplomacy. When everything was said and done, every country agreed to her suggestions.
Tacitus   
12 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Trade partnerships can be destroyed and formed in no time.

Trade partnerships can be destroyed easily, bbutit takes time to develop them, especially if you want a particulary close partnership. Germany is an ideal trading partner, because it is geographically close, has large and wealthy population that seek Polish services and thanks to its' higher wage structure, has trouble with competing with Polish competition. No other country fullfills all those criterias. It would be utterly foolish to throw this away.
Tacitus   
13 Jul 2017
Life / Are Poles mentally more Eastern European or Western European? [171]

@Wulkan

This is not a fact, this is your fantasy because the fact is that we Poles integrate very well in those countries.

Indeed. Poles account for the second largest minority in Germany after Turks, and they are all in all incredibly well integrated. They are often not any from native Germans, and often people are surprised to learn just how many Poles live in Germany.
Tacitus   
25 Jul 2017
News / Was Kaczyński behind the presidential veto? [65]

The situation in Poland is really bizarre. I mean are there any other examples in functioning democracies where a politician without official position seems to be pulling the strings off both the president and the prime minister?
Tacitus   
26 Jul 2017
News / EU confirms it will take action against Poland over court reforms [554]

To those who believe that Poland could do easily without EU money, it is worth remembering that Warsaw receives in structural funds more money than it actually spends on defence. Poland would lose a vital factor for its' current economic growth.

Poland can have a nice relation with the USA and Israeli.

Is this really how you envision Poland's future? Completely isolated in Europe, whose only allies are either increasingly desinterested in European affairs, or more occupied with their own unstable neighbourhood in the ME?
Tacitus   
26 Jul 2017
News / Was Kaczyński behind the presidential veto? [65]

wanting to restore a status quo swept into oblivion by voters in a democratic election!

Having a functioning rule of law is more than "status quo". And PiS didn't pledge to destroy the Judicial independence in Poland in the election campaign. And even if they did and had been elected regardless, it would be the duty of any citizen to oppose them.
Tacitus   
27 Jul 2017
News / EU confirms it will take action against Poland over court reforms [554]

y (!) pro-German and pro-Nazi regime.

You know we aren't living in the 1940s anymore right?

. Also, EU and NATO successfully awaking Polish-Russian antagonism in situation when Russia grow stronger.

As if there was any need for this. It is not the EU that still clings to the conspiracy theory against all evidence that Russia murdered the Polish president. Kaczynski does not need any encouragement for his enmity against Russia.
Tacitus   
27 Jul 2017
Genealogy / Are Silesians people German/Germanic? [178]

@Crow This is a lot bs you are talking about. Stop projecting modern concepts of nationality into the past.

Germans started as romanized Sarmatian villages and city states in Roman province of Germania

Oh my god this is so absurd... . Before the Romans came, therr was nothing in Germania except large forests and some small settlements made of wood. They founded some cities (Cologne, Trier) but generally used the same system they applied elsewhere to secure their dominion: Working with the lical elites. They mostly left the tribes alone on the right side of the Rhine and made no attempt to actively "Romanize" them after conquest became impractical. However the Roman way of life proved very tempting to the "barbarians" which is not surprising.

Out of curiosity, have you ever read a modern history book by a respectable historian? Probably not, because if you did, yould know how utterly wrong your conceptions are.

Would you also claim that the Balkans are inheritely Italian territory? Because the Roman conquered most of it and the territory prospered under their rule like never before and never again in history.

The answer is of course no, since there is no direct link between Italians and Romans since the Roman people consisted of basically half of Europe, parts of Asia and Africa.
Tacitus   
27 Jul 2017
Genealogy / Are Silesians people German/Germanic? [178]

Hitler had very little historical knowledge, and what he read was often from autors who could not be deemed as serious historians even then.
Needless to say, the claim that today Germans have anything in common with the Germanic tribes of the past is just as ridiculous. I wrote a university paper on the depiction of the Germanic tribes under the Nazis and let's just say, how they proved the "connection" between the Vandals/VisigothsGermanic tribes and the German people has nothing to do with historical research and everything with wishful thinking. And of course, there were attempts to underline the difference between the Germanic people who had "resisted" Roman influence.

Just an example for how the perception has changed. Historians used to depict the troubles of the late Western Roman Empire as a struggle between Romans and Germanic tribes. But as historians have pointed out, most of the Germanic war chiefs (including Alaric who sacked Rome) were actually part of the Roman army, often achieving high or even the highest ranks, so it is more justifiable to see this as an power struggle between Romans.
Tacitus   
4 Aug 2017
History / For what the Germans owe Poland one trillion U.S. dollars? [299]

@Ziemowit

It is too early for that, no legal research has been done both on the Polish or on the German side yet.

I have recently written a university paper about the Oder-Neisse-line and from what I have remembered, the issue of reparations is legally closed. The arguments are as such:

1. Article IV. of the Potsdam Protocol deals with the issue of reparations, there is a passage regarding Poland:

"The U. S. S. R. undertakes to settle the reparation claims of Poland from its own share of reparations."

The SU took huge parts of the German industry, money and natural ressources as reparations. I don't know how much ended up in Poland, but that would be up to the SU. It is worth pointing out that until the border treaty between Germany and Poland in 1991, Poland insisted that the Potsdam Protocol was absolute (because it wanted the Oder-Neisse-line to be final).

2. Poland agreed to wave its' rights to reparations with the GDR. The fact that neither country was a democracy is from a legal point of view completely inconsequential, otherwise it would be impossible to get legal agreements with non-democracy. It is also completely inconsequential if those treaties were signed under outside pressure, because then peace treaties would of course also become in general not binding. So JK's argument is completely ridiculous.

3. Germany and Poland agreed to solve the issue permanently during the negotiations for the border-treaty in 1991. Germany created a foundation that paid out several bns to Polish victims of the war.

Besides, it is not really in Poland's interest to open this can of worms. Because then those Germans who were expelled could demand reparations for their lost property (the Potsdam agreement that legally allowed those expulsions would become non-binding due to Poland's insistence) and there is also the issue of looted art (the Berlinka collection for example) which Berlin has so far not pressed because of respect to Polish sensitives, but would also become open to discussion.

this cant be used as war reparations.if Poland would have to give away former german land in order to recive reparation-as you suggest,then what about polish land in the east we lost?

That would be an issue you would have to discuss with Russia. However regarding Germany, the intent of the Potsdam Agreement was very clear. Poland would receive German land and property and additionally whatever the SU would deem suitable from their part of the reparations. There is no additional claim here. And strictly speaking, the German territory was far more valuable (in terms of ressources and industry) than the part lost in the East.
Tacitus   
4 Aug 2017
History / For what the Germans owe Poland one trillion U.S. dollars? [299]

how bout lost property of polish people in Lwow and Wilno

That would be an issue e.g. between Poland and the Ukraine/Russia, which would have nothing to do withe claims against Germany, or claims Germans would have against Poland.

poland was against implementing border changes after war

This is not true, the people who ended up in charge thanks to Stalin very much supported those. But admittedly in the end it was Stalin who decided what was done

..whats your agenda here twats?

Pointing out that the current Polish government is harming Polish long-term interests. As your language indicates, those who favour the current approach are not guided by logic and have seemingly no understanding for the implications of those decisions. Poland has nothing to gain from those claims, because as pointed out they are legally non-existing.
Tacitus   
4 Aug 2017
History / For what the Germans owe Poland one trillion U.S. dollars? [299]

and what was their legal basis

Several treaties in which Germany agreed to pay reparations to them.

Poland has in 1954 signed a treaty in which it waved off its' claims to further reparations, regarding Germany as a whole (not only the GDR, because the GDR was for them the legitimate German government).

Poland decided to stick to this decision during the negotiations for the treaty of Warsaw (1970) and later during negotiations for German reunifications. Germany in return agreed to pay bns voluntarily to the victims and gave Poland cheap loans which Poland craved.

In short, there is no legal basis for any further claims on Polish sides.
Tacitus   
4 Aug 2017
History / For what the Germans owe Poland one trillion U.S. dollars? [299]

In reality you would have to ask Stalin what was the reason those lands went to Poland.

Simple, he wanted to keep Poland dependent on the SU, because Poland would need the SU to defend them against German attempts to revise the border.

That BS. Most of that industry if not destroyed during military oppression was either destroyed or stolen by the Soviets.

The areas especially in Silesia had still vastly more economic potential than the areas in the East. That the areas in now Western Poland were far more valuable both in terms of ressources and industrial capabilities (far from everything was destroyed) than those lost in the East is not up to any debate, it is a fact.

Warsaw wasn't destroyed completely due to a military operation not even due to the Warsaw uprising but due to the systematic destruction carried out by the Germans on Hitler's order.

All of that is covered in the existing treaties. There were in total 5 times when the issue of reparations was adressed for Poland: 1. Potsdam Agreement 2. The treaty with the GDR 3. Warsaw treaty 4. 4+2 treaty 1990 and 5. the border treaty with Germany in 1991.

The point is that Poland has time and time again refirmed its' position to not seek further reparations against Germany, and signed treaties confirming this. There is hardly any modern conflict in which the reparation issue has been dealt with as conclusively as between Poland and Germany.

Not if he is talking about private property that wasn't destroyed due to military operation but due to the actions of the occupied power.

It doesn't matter, those claims would still have to be made by the Polish state, who has signed off any claims for future reparations.