- there are a few million of Poles without their own flat, millions live in shi*ty communist era blocks and would like to buy something else.
Good point Grzegorz. My girlfriends parents from Poznan are in that category. However, as you then said
of course prices are not going to grow much because very few people would afford them
That is why I would worry about prices retaining their values at current levels. I believe a harsh recession is coming for the countries which I mentioned in my first post. These are some of the countries to which Poles have emigrated most. This will probably affect the amount of money coming back to Poland. The question I am asking is whether, if that money dries up, the domestic Polish market can sustain prices, some of which are high even by western european levels. Is salary growth of ten per cent sufficient to sustain these prices? Im hoping it can but Im no expert on Polish economic affairs.
nevertheless i believe that germany and even more poland are not so much dependent on the developments in the US (other than in the UK) so the effects should not be as harsh as in the uk or ireland.
Thanks for the response Falster. I hope your right. Personally, Im not so sure that is the case as I have a feeling that there is a serious systemic problem in the banking system right throughout the capitalist world and it is going to get a lot worse before it bets better. Deutsche Bank were in trouble ths year. Im also thinking about Northern Rock, BNP Paribas, Bear Stearns etc. Without wanting to sound too alarmist I know a guy who wroks as a trader who told me that a number of people at his company dumped their entire portfolios just before Christmas. They are convinced that we are all sailing into a shitstorm. In the US, some respected commentators are likening the current problems to what happened in 1929 just before the crash and great depression. Im very worried about the whole thing, especially as my Polish girlfriend recently bought an apt in Poznan (against my advice).
As for Ireland, there is still demand in the comercial construction sector but it is not going to last. Housing is down by unprecedented levels and figures now show that rents have begun to decrease. Your Cork office might be working more on the commercial sector - just a guess - but we in Ireland are about to pay the price for concentrating too much resources in one sector (construction), which along with related industries accounts for 20 to 25% of our economy. Even Germany post-1989 wasnt at that levels and you know better than me what happened next.
Still, as somebody once said its good to live in interesting times...