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Forget Ukraine! The question is: " Is Poland going down??"


jeroen 1 | 12  
22 Feb 2009 /  #1
Some concerns to think about:

* Foreign investors are withdrawing from Poland. The economic growth and wealth in Poland was/is for a large part driven by these investors.

* Most banks in Poland are owned by foreign banks who are already in a difficult situation, these mother banks cannot (or don't want to) save their polish branches.

* The millions of Polish workers outside Poland were generating nice cash flows into Poland, but these people are working in sectors that are hit hard by the crisis (Construction, transportation, factories). This is already stopping.

It is going to be a very tough period for poland.....
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
22 Feb 2009 /  #2
Good subject for discussion. This is a concern. Poland's economy was booming just a year ago but the financial crisis is like a virus from America. Putin shows how it manifests itself in a Russia Today broadcast on Youtube.

Many are tightening their belts. What gets me is how little some people know of the mechanics of the crisis, where it emanates from and how it bites. Investors take their chances but who, in their right mind, would heavily invest now? The problem may be compounded by more Poles coming back home. The rise from 4PLN to the pound to 5 may help to stem the tide but most will just contribute to the unemployment figure.

For some information, check out Zeitgeist but there are Youtube videos which have specialists discussing the issue.
Babinich 1 | 455  
22 Feb 2009 /  #3
What gets me is how little some people know of the mechanics of the crisis, where it emanates from and how it bites.

Please enlighten us.
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
22 Feb 2009 /  #4
I'm a firm believer that people must learn for themselves and draw their own conclusions. I'm not here to give free exposes on the dynamics of the financial system. Use your versatility and resourcefulness and enlighten yourself.
Babinich 1 | 455  
22 Feb 2009 /  #5
I'm not here to give free exposes on the dynamics of the financial system.

Your experience in the world of finance makes your opinion matter more than most. So, you do have an opinion; care to share it?
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,161  
22 Feb 2009 /  #6
" Is Poland going down??"

Definately yes.
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
22 Feb 2009 /  #7
I don't have experience in the world of finance but maybe that's a good thing. I can be more objective and not brainwashed. I am, however, capable of forming opinions based on what I watch and read.

OK, let's discuss the FED. An institution not directly controlled by the US govt with the power to generate currency on an unprecedented scale. They bear no liability for any transactions that go wrong whereas the ordinary taxpayer will always foot the bill. Draw an analogy to what the US govt did to plunge the US into unparalleled national debt. The country lost billions whilst the corporations themselves reaped the benefits.

I'm sticking to facts here. No heebee jeebie stuff.
Babinich 1 | 455  
22 Feb 2009 /  #8
The country lost billions whilst the corporations themselves reaped the benefits.

Is it your opinion that 'Laissez-faire Capitalism' practiced by America caused the world wide downturn we see today?
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
22 Feb 2009 /  #9
Well, that can be simply refuted Babinich. Look at Republican administrations such as Reagan's and Bush snr's. Capitalism was rampant yet there was no ostensible financial crisis. As you are no doubt aware, it is the gross mismanagement of banks that have been the primary cause of the crisis. Look at the internal workings of the IMF and World Bank. Look at common factors. Look at figures who recurringly pop-up. Try Paul Wolfowitz for one.

Babinich, are you even aware of the extent of money laundering within the CIA? Do you know that if Obama clamps down on that, how much money will be taken out of circulation? I'd call these 'assets of dependence'. I don't know what the pros say. Also, please tell me your understanding of lending patterns and conditions.
Babinich 1 | 455  
22 Feb 2009 /  #10
As you are no doubt aware, it is the gross mismanagement of banks that have been the primary cause of the crisis.

This "gross mismanagement" you speak of, did government play a part in any of this?
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
22 Feb 2009 /  #11
May I recommend AskJeeves.Com? (Ask.com) Hehe, just kidding ;)

Do you know of a Mr Paulson? His meddling will shed some light for you. Given that the government issues bailouts, they are not the ones to go after.

Some people are so immersed in risk that volatility can yield dividends. The shareholders are spared but taxpayers have to bite the bullet. Yet again, the government has been negligent in some areas by not curbing certain illicit activities. That doesn't put them at the source of the crisis though.

Household mortgages, read up on them and how they mishandled them so badly. This is a key factor in the accumulation of debt.

Also, read up on derivatives. I learned a lot from the Financial Director of Vattenfall here in Poland back in the summer of 2007. I did a 3-month contract there. We did a few classes on it. Still, there were many areas of grey which we couldn't explain away. This 'vacuum' in understanding extends into the financial sphere, hence your problems.

I don't know how 'repo' changed in America too. In Poland, there is wyndikacja to recover payments. I think authorities in the US started getting slack. The true extent of the crisis was unveiled.

The hoverers have swooped, Babinich. The FED will never put its hands up. The Bank of England either. It's an inadvertent redistribution of wealth.
miranda  
22 Feb 2009 /  #12
Seanus: As you are no doubt aware, it is the gross mismanagement of banks that have been the primary cause of the crisis.

This "gross mismanagement" you speak of, did government play a part in any of this?

I think that Babinich is pulling your leg to see how much general knowledge he can pull out of you. I think is knows about the US crisis;),
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
22 Feb 2009 /  #13
For the umpteenth time, this is a forum. This is about discussion of things and he doesn't appear to be doing much of that.

If he really wants to know, he should check this,
youtube.com/watch?v=4Rsngr6iQvo

Almost 2 hours worth from Stanford University experts. The debate itself lasts over an hour.
plk123 8 | 4,149  
22 Feb 2009 /  #14
yeah seasnus, you're the only one discussing..
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
22 Feb 2009 /  #15
To answer the second point of jeroen, it is a rare case to be happy of PKO's existence. They are a state bank that will not be hit so badly.
Sokrates 8 | 3,346  
22 Feb 2009 /  #16
Poland is finished Ukraine is going to annex it.
plk123 8 | 4,149  
22 Feb 2009 /  #17
lol.. seems the other way around
Crnogorac3 2 | 442  
22 Feb 2009 /  #18
Polish people should withdraw their hard earned money from foreign banks, and deposit it in Polish banks, or keep it under the mattress as a last resort. Especially try to avoid relying on the dollar, and get rid of it as soon as possible, before the preplanned worldwide robbery the jewish banksters are going to carry out. This financial crisis is artificially created.
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
22 Feb 2009 /  #19
I buy into that, Crno. Why? Because there are so many specialists and forecasters who would have foreseen it and put precautionary measures in place. Certain powers wanted it to happen. A firm like Lehmann Brothers knows the industry inside out.

Poland is aware of the problem, that's the first step. Tusk has some rescue packages set aside but let's hope he doesn't need to use them on any notable scale. Poland can put some prophylactic measures forward but the problems will come from outwith. Most significantly, a loss of investor confidence in banks.
Babinich 1 | 455  
23 Feb 2009 /  #21
The hoverers have swooped, Babinich. The FED will never put its hands up. The Bank of England either. It's an inadvertent redistribution of wealth.

I go with leverage, MBS obfuscation, and tragic government policy as the causes.

realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/02/the_sec_killed_wall_street_on.html
spectator.org/archives/2009/02/06/the-true-origins-of-this-finan

I have no problems with secularization of anything as long as proper risk analysis is conducted by all parties especially the rating agencies.

It's an inadvertent redistribution of wealth.

Welcome to America... America is about wealth redistribution and not about wealth creation. After all, if you create a dependency you've secured your voting base.

I think that Babinich is pulling your leg to see how much general knowledge he can pull out of you. I think is knows about the US crisis;),

Miranda, you're one smart cookie. Welcome back...:')
Seanus 15 | 19,706  
23 Feb 2009 /  #22
Some government policies have let them down but the main culprits lie outwith the governmental domain.
Rafal_1981  
23 Feb 2009 /  #23
'Laissez-faire Capitalism' practiced by America caused the world wide downturn we see today?

It's not a crisis of capitalism it's a crisis of protectionism.

Regulatory changes of Community Reinvestment Act "designed to encourage commercial banks and savings associations to meet the needs of borrowers in all segments of their communities, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods"

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act
southern 75 | 7,096  
23 Feb 2009 /  #24
Crisis is because people lost trust to the chinese products under brand names.
Sokrates 8 | 3,346  
25 Feb 2009 /  #25
Every day sixty thousand Poles die in a civil war between the federation of Warsaw and the gypsie republic of Białystok, Poland as we know it is over.
lexi 1 | 176  
25 Feb 2009 /  #26
Investors take their chances but who, in their right mind, would heavily invest now?

This is the precise time to invest if you have the money, of course it is. The clever people in the banks predicted this 2 years ago and got their cash out, and now are willing to invest again with a hugh profit. hey are the winners all the time. The ones that read the market are the survivors. They are the first ones with the information.
SeanBM 35 | 5,808  
25 Feb 2009 /  #27
Foreign investors are withdrawing from Poland. The economic growth and wealth in Poland was/is for a large part driven by these investors.

There is of course a problem with exports due to the credit crunch.
A lot of foreign companies are slowing down production.
However it should be noted other companies are moving here but at a slower rate.

Most banks in Poland are owned by foreign banks who are already in a difficult situation, these mother banks cannot (or don't want to) save their polish branches.

I don't know where you get this from???.
More Banks are opening up here.
The Polish law was so strict that the money could not leave Polish branches of foreign owned banks.

The millions of Polish workers outside Poland were generating nice cash flows into Poland, but these people are working in sectors that are hit hard by the crisis (Construction, transportation, factories). This is already stopping.

Are you saying millions of Poles are all going to come back? and swallow their money?.

I don't have experience in the world of finance but maybe that's a good thing. I can be more objective and not brainwashed. I am, however, capable of forming opinions based on what I watch and read.

It is posts like this Seanus that make me question your statements.

Polish people should withdraw their hard earned money from foreign banks, and deposit it in Polish banks, or keep it under the mattress as a last resort.

Ha ha ha,
Crnogorac3, you're a nutter.

I have no problems with secularization of anything as long as proper risk analysis is conducted by all parties especially the rating agencies.

Secularization?, as opposed to what?.

Every day sixty thousand Poles die in a civil war between the federation of Warsaw and the gypsie republic of Białystok, Poland as we know it is over.

Apart from giving me a chuckle, I have no idea what you mean.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Is Poland going down?.

The effects of the world crises are being felt here.
To a much less degree than her neighbours.
I think this down turn is an excellent opportunity to get rid of all the bureaucratic nonsense in this country.

-Some things have already very recently been changed here,
It only costs 5000 PLN to set up a Społka z.o.o.
Plus it will take 24 hours to set up (buy them off the shelf).

-There is no longer a need to apply for building permission, so long as you adhere to the general plan.

I also work in Lithuania and the new government has done some of the stupidest things imaginable.
They invented new taxes, crippling small business's and worsening the problems they face.

I have noticed that a lot of the construction firms in Poland are now building the roads with the E.U. money.
I drive through Poland often and there is great progress being made.

The value of the PLN is worrying but the government has been trying to rectify this and I believe are finally serious about joining the Euro currency.

There are going to be tough negotiations between Poland and the E.U. setting the exchange rate but remember Czech have renegotiated twice already.
With the Euro currency, Poland will be stronger and less fluctuation will accrue.

I also think it is a good time for Poland because the house prises will not continue to inflate before it becomes ridiculous (in some places it has already.)

I honestly don't think there will be a change for the better until the U.S.A and other countries start coming up again.

=============================================

This is the precise time to invest if you have the money, of course it is.

In certain sectors.
lexi 1 | 176  
25 Feb 2009 /  #28
Are you saying millions of Poles are all going to come back? and swallow their money?.

Yes that is exactly what he is saying, you have no idea how bad the situation in the uk is?
SeanBM 35 | 5,808  
25 Feb 2009 /  #29
OK, so approximately two million Poles are going to come back... and...???.
Unemployment is high here and the wages are low, much lower than there.
Of course some people are going to come back but not a majority, despite your best wishes.
lexi 1 | 176  
25 Feb 2009 /  #30
Of course some people are going to come back but not a majority, despite your best wishes.

I don't wish polish people to go back. I have no problem and never had any problem with this. I take people for what they are, whatever their nationality.However the £ to the zl is bad, and many will go back because jobs in the uk have rapidly decreased almost overnight. It is hard in certain areas for people of any nationality to get a job, it is really that bad.

Depressing as it is, it is an everyday occurance for companies to announce that they are closing down, or shredding their workforce. Even the menial of jobs, many people are applying for.

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