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Does Poland count in Europe or is it ignored?


TheOther 6 | 3,674  
30 Nov 2009 /  #301
rock

Plenty of your fellow countrymen around... ;)
Sokrates 8 | 3,345  
30 Nov 2009 /  #302
You forget efficiency and technological advancement Sokrates....

No i dont but they're a non-factor, its hard facts and numbers, if you have less people working you have less money, if you have even more people you need to support you have even less money.

Shrinking of populations isn't the problem as more and more machines and computers help out

And take the jobs you forgot to add, any job that a computer or a machine does is not done by a living human which in turn means no money, of course you could heavily tax said automated facilities but then they will just move abroad.

the discrepancy between old and young is a problem.

And in German case specifically also the loss of people and the fact that while other countries like Poland will have this problem for another 20 years after which there's again growth unless some miracle happens you're going to be shrinking even by 2040s with no option to stop it.

Are you really believing in a kind of a breeding war? We can't expand endlessly...

No but extreme cases of decline (and Germany is as extreme as it gets) may cause collapse of a country in its current shape.

But also this isn't dramatic to "fall on the face" :)

I've been to Germany many times i've seen the level of life there i'd say that being reduced to Poland-2009 status in lets say 2040 would be a pretty dramatic change.

Russia for example has so much more people, would you call them superior to Germany because of this?

Russia is a completely different cookie and its demographic problems are even worse since they have so much more ground to cover.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
30 Nov 2009 /  #303
No i dont but they're a non-factor, its hard facts and numbers, if you have less people working you have less money, if you have even more people you need to support you have even less

I have less people to pay and to feed too! ;)
Especially if there are more retirees than workers, machines become more important...and we have them! :)

A Merc (now fully green of course thanks to german technology) for example build mostly by machines brings still a regular sum on the market which can now be shared with fewer people who get now a bigger share...no catastrophe at all.

The only form of that crass case of doom spelling for Europe and Germany was from the nutters of Stratfor....were you wandering there again Sok? *waggles finger at Sokrates*

That is all wishful thinking and has nothing to do with reality!

Not to mention that you like to forget that Germany isn't any longer in a vacuum (as isn't Poland).
Our societies and economies will be entangled in a way that it isn't "Germany which will fall on it's face", it will be all of us or nobody!
Sokrates 8 | 3,345  
30 Nov 2009 /  #304
I have less people to pay and to feed too! ;)

Pure math, if less people get born in each generation then a number of the old people in relation to young workers is steadily increasing each day as more people reach retirement age daily and fewer join the workforce, in Germany its also coupled with people simply vanishing from the workforce via population decrease and the lack of financial margin to afford immigration.

Especially if there are more retirees than workers, machines become more important...and we have them! :)

So now we're into science-fiction realm? Apart from the fact that full automation of the industry is well a total unreality due to technological and financial limitation the money earned by those would have to be extracted by taxes which would in turn kill the enterprises by being expensive.

were you wandering there again Sok?

Was i ever?

That is all wishful thinking and has nothing to do with reality!

findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb6588/is_4_14/ai_n28991810

knowledge.allianz.com/en/globalissues/demographic_change/country_profiles/demographic_profile_germany_outlook.html

Thats a reality check for you but hey Germany has robots!:)
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
30 Nov 2009 /  #305
So now we're into science-fiction realm?

Well....we are talking about the next century here, don't we?
(A german robot team won recently the robot-football-championships I've heard, jawoll!) :):):)

If industry will be ever fully automated and if that will be advisable, I don't know.
But modern, western societies ALL enter the post-industrial age, with shrinking populations and higher life span. Also less work for uneducated, unskilled laborer and more service!

That is a generally development, not necessarily a problem we can't adapt to. And surely not
limited to Germany! :)

But if you prefer....okay....soon there will be a huge, empty place in the midst of Europe...where nobody lives anymore and all plants and buildings are overgrown by weeds!

So....happy now? :)
rock - | 429  
30 Nov 2009 /  #306
According to UN population estimates for 2050,

Country Populations in Europe :

Russia : 116.000.000
Turkey: 97.000.000
UK : 72.000.000
Germany: 70.000.000
France : 68.000.000
Italy : 57.000.000
Spain : 51.000.000
Ukraine : 35.000.000
Poland : 32.000.000
Romania : 17.000.000

And population by age comparison between Turkey and Europe in 2050;

0-14 15-64 65+
Turkey % 21 % 68 % 11
Europe % 14 % 58 % 28
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
30 Nov 2009 /  #307
You know rock....substitution of Europeans by Turks is so NOT an alternative!
Why don't you breed elsewhere? But who knows...you might develop into an advanced country maybe sometimes too...then you will face the same developments.

Masses of children is the sign of a poor, uneducated, undeveloped society....you have not much else to offer but children!

Just some more info about our european future: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-industrial_society

A post-industrial society is a society in which an economic transition has occurred from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy, a diffusion of national and global capital, and mass privatization. The prerequisites to this economic shift are the processes of industrialization and liberalization.
This economic transition spurs a restructuring in society as a whole.[1]

Yes, a change for our societies....but it isn't the first and it won't be the last...nothing to be afraid of or a reason to wring hands and see only darkness! :)

Examples of post-industrial societies include the United States, Canada, Japan, and Western Europe.
The "post-industrial" period did not begin until during or after World War II, according to most sociologists: "Western sociologists usually maintain that the basis of the post-industrial society began to be formed in the late 1950s and that the process has been gaining ground ever since."[6]

Sokrates 8 | 3,345  
30 Nov 2009 /  #308
You know rock....substitution of Europeans by Turks is so NOT an alternative!

Not a desirable one anyway.

Yes, a change for our societies....but it isn't the first and it won't be the last...nothing to be afraid of or a reason to wring hands and see only darkness! :)

Which in this case means raising the age limit to which you have to work but thats a short term solution, that said UN prognosis is rubbish.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
30 Nov 2009 /  #309
We have to adapt...find new rules and laws....but transitions are never easy!
But as I said...we as peoples had definitely worse things to overcome.
Sokrates 8 | 3,345  
30 Nov 2009 /  #310
We have to adapt...find new rules and laws....but transitions are never easy!

How do you adapt to people being too old to work? (Thats a problem for Poland too, to a lesser extent but still).

Sure you can raise the retirement border but to a certain point only.

But as I said...we as peoples had definitely worse things to overcome.

More dramatic? Yes, worse? No.
rock - | 429  
30 Nov 2009 /  #311
You know rock....substitution of Europeans by Turks is so NOT an alternative!
Why don't you breed elsewhere? But who knows...you might develop into an advanced country maybe sometimes too...then you will face the same developments.

Masses of children is the sign of a poor, uneducated, undeveloped society....you have not much else to offer but children!

Just some more info about our european future:

It is good and healthy for Turkey that population increase will go on until 2050. According to estimates our population will begin to diminish in 2050. The peak will be 98.000.000. Unfortunately not 100.000.000 :). But, the most important part is we will still have a young population compared with Europe.

We have a huge agricultural potantial and water to feed a larger population. Meanwhile, we are closing the development gap with Europe and passing to post-industrial society will be achieved in 20-25 years. You need also population to be a power in the world and deterrent for your potantial enemies.

If you only look at the Turkish population living in Europe, you will make a mistake.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
30 Nov 2009 /  #312
How do you adapt to people being too old to work? (Thats a problem for Poland too, to a lesser extent but still).

That will be taken care of with machinisations and computerizing.
Work in the Service or on computers isn't as demanding. And more machines are able
to produce more wealth than people in the same amount of time (not to mention less need
for "maintenance" like food or social services).
So people don't have to work till they drop...there won't be probably enough work at all.
But people should get still money, they need new responsibilities...as I said it's a restructuring of the society, new ideas and solutions to new problems are needed.

More dramatic? Yes, worse? No.

Oh yes!
I for one would not had wanted to live during the beginnings of the industrial revolution.
As an unskilled worker in the new plants, not much more than slaves, working till you dropped on the new machines, without any social net, holidays or rights at all, poisened by the toxic, unfiltered vapors, for only a cent per hour.

I would have died very young, without having had a life at all...worse, definitely!
joepilsudski 26 | 1,389  
30 Nov 2009 /  #313
But to take advantage of those markets and to be competitive Poland would to have to have her own high quality products that are in demand. With your current production base you don't stand a chance.

Good point...Develop the production base, develop cutting edge technology...One problem is capital...Global capitalism now makes decisions, for the most part, about allocations of capital for investment and development...Challenge is attracting capital for investments that will build Poland for the long term, with as few strings attached as possible...Globalists segment the markets: We/You will do this here, we sell it here...A country must develop, as much as possible, a strong independent economy, not subject to the whims of bankers and multi-nationals and their 'strategies'...This is what 'free trade' really means, and it has been a disaster for the US....Harder said than done: Germany is an example, a traditional powerhouse for industry and technology, yet it still suffers from the ambitions of the 'globalists', meaning it's people pay a heavy tax for these schemes...If Germany wasn't tied into the EU mechanism, and was freed from the restraints of the aftermath of WWII, the sky is the limit...But the powers that be do not want this.
rock - | 429  
30 Nov 2009 /  #314
...A country must develop, as much as possible, a strong independent economy, not subject to the whims of bankers and multi-nationals and their 'strategies'

I agree.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
30 Nov 2009 /  #315
If Germany wasn't tied into the EU mechanism, and was freed from the restraints of the aftermath of WWII, the sky is the limit...But the powers that be do not want this.

Ooooh....Joe, you couldn't be more wrong! :)
The EU was always good for Germany. It's our economical "backyard" if you so want.
It's our market....it's much easier to sell here our products than elsewhere...the EU makes it possible, one currency...streamlined laws and procedures...continent wide trade was never so easy! :)

And not only for Germany, every trader nation will tell you the same. Would we be so successfull alone outside? Doubt it..
joepilsudski 26 | 1,389  
1 Dec 2009 /  #316
So, you feel Germany does well with the EU system?...You live in Germany, you would know better...Now, as has been stated, Germany subsidizes a big part of the EU...But of course you retain the Mark...Now let me ask: Is the Euro used inside Germany for most transactions, or is it more of a tool for the bankers to 'balance things out', you know, a measuring stick?...There is much debate about 'regional currencies' in the US, the opinion being negative on the part of those who think about these things, the rich bankers being all for it...The majority of people don't really care...How has it worked for Germany?
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
1 Dec 2009 /  #317
So, you feel Germany does well with the EU system?

Well...I have the big picture in mind...and the EU is definitely a plus for traders and sellers and entrepreneurs. Movements of goods and money is so much easier! A common currency and no border difficulties nor isolationist, protectionists politics helps alot to spread wealth.

I'm not such a fan of conspiracy theories at all, also I wouldn't see much more in the usual greed of bankers than there already is, but as long as the majority of people profits (prosperous countries, free movement for all, endless possibilities to start your own business where you want etc.) I'm all for it.

You must'n keep the german elites, the german business for stupid Joe.
Yes, Germany pays alot into the EU, but we profit even more so. Only people who don't get that (yes we have them in Germany too) are moping and only see the disadvantages (moving plants, immigrants etc.)

But here I think the EU should become much more pro-European! Plants should move only inside, between the EU members, immigration only between EU-countries etc...

I think we should help first our economically weaker EU-member states instead of some godforsaken hell in Africa etc.
We need to set priorities - and these should be European!
joepilsudski 26 | 1,389  
1 Dec 2009 /  #318
Very good point...Now, what is the trade relationship between Poland and Germany?...Is it a case of using cheap Polish labor, or would/does Germany invest in building the Polish economy?...Certainly, Poland and Germany should be good neighbors, since they are next door to each other...Are there Polish businessmen who would like some German expertise, and does the Polish government encourage this?
TheOther 6 | 3,674  
1 Dec 2009 /  #319
joepilsudski This should answer your questions (web site is a bit slow): warsawvoice.pl/view/17363
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
1 Dec 2009 /  #320
Very good point...Now, what is the trade relationship between Poland and Germany?...Is it a case of using cheap Polish labor, or would/does Germany invest in building the Polish economy?...Certainly, Poland and Germany should be good neighbors, since they are next door to each other...Are there Polish businessmen who would like some German expertise, and does the Polish government encourage this?

I think the more and the sooner Poland catches up to the "oldies" the more it will become a mutual interchange...I don't see anything what should keep that from happening?

(Germany is already the biggest investor in Poland I believe)

auswaertiges-amt.de/diplo/en/Laenderinformationen/01-Laender/Polen.html

Economic relations

The Polish economy has successfully withstood the global economic crisis. For example, Poland was the only EU country to record positive GDP growth this year (1st quarter of 2009: plus 1.9 per cent; 2nd quarter: plus 1.1 per cent).

Since Poland joined the EU in 2004, German-Polish trade has gained momentum. For many years, Germany has been Poland's most important trading partner by far, and Poland is becoming increasingly important for the German economy as its principal business partner in Central and Eastern Europe, ranking an impressive eleventh in 2008.

Even in 2008, a year increasingly overshadowed by the international financial and economic crisis, bilateral trade still grew by 10 per cent, to EUR 66.3 billion, according to Federal Statistical Office figures.

The principal German exports are machinery and electrical goods, plant, motor vehicles, chemical and plastic products. Poland's main exports to Germany are machinery, vehicles, household appliances, (white goods and television sets), chemical products, food and furniture.

In terms of both the number of investors and the total amount invested, Germany is probably the leading supplier of foreign capital to Poland. Since Poland's change of political system in 1989/1990, German direct investments of at least EUR one million in the country have been worth some EUR 19 billion (including EUR 2.8 billion in 2007). On top of this are the investments by small and medium-sized companies, especially in the border region, which do not appear in statistics. Most German investments are greenfield investments, only a small portion being made through takeovers or in connection with the privatization of state-owned enterprises. German companies are also investing increasingly in technologically advanced manufacturing and services and are expanding their research and development activities in Poland.

Major German investments in Poland focus on the automotive and mechanical engineering industries, the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, banking and insurance, the wholesale and retail trade as well as the energy sector. Also of increasing importance is business process outsourcing, e.g. in the IT sector.

Poland's accession to the Schengen area, with the abolition of passport controls at the German-Polish border on 21 December 2007, has further facilitated cross-border cooperation.

See? EU is good for our both countries...
Torq  
1 Dec 2009 /  #321
(Germany is already the biggest investor in Poland I believe)

Actually, it's France. Two years ago the sum of French investments in Poland
equalled about 17 billion euro and is steadily growing since then. There are
about 800 French companies registered in Poland (including giants like Carrefour,
Auchan and Michelin; also France Telecom is the owner of Telekomunikacja Polska).

Recently there's a lot of talk about French-Polish nuclear co-operation. Mainly
it's about power plants, but hopefully our government will not miss an opportunity
to create our own "force de frappe".

Of course, our German friends are very important for us too, but we need to keep
France closer in case some pre-emptive strike is needed in the future ;)
joepilsudski 26 | 1,389  
1 Dec 2009 /  #322
This should answer your questions (web site is a bit slow):

Very encouraging...I noticed that the article is from a year ago, but I was most impressed by the report that Germany had a 0% budget deficit...Unbelievable...The US, well, you know the story...PLUS, 20% unemployment here, with another say 10% UNDEREMPLOYMENT...And still the Mexicans, Africans and Asians flood in...The Asians and Africans are productive, the Mexicans work too, but they send all the money back to Mexico, and eat up the social services...California is technically bankrupt, as are most states.

I think the more and the sooner Poland catches up to the "oldies" the more it will become a mutual interchange...I don't see anything what should keep that from happening

Good news.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
1 Dec 2009 /  #323
Of course, our German friends are very important for us too, but we need to keep
France closer in case some pre-emptive strike is needed in the future ;)

Well....that would put the damper on all of our merging plans...:(
Torq  
1 Dec 2009 /  #324
Hey! I didn't mean pre-emptive strike against Germany! We need the alliance with
France to keep those sneaky Swiss bastards in check, in case they want to invade
us through Austria and Czech Republic.

I can't believe you thought I was talking about Germany... there so much distrust
between us... I'm genuinely hurt...

*looks through the window with sad face, wondering what did he do to deserve such
lack of trust...*

TheOther 6 | 3,674  
1 Dec 2009 /  #325
...but we need to keep France closer in case some pre-emptive strike is needed in the future

You'd better watch out that the French and Germans won't cooperate next time... ;)
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,742  
1 Dec 2009 /  #326
Hey! I didn't mean pre-emptive strike against Germany

Oh...now then...*berates himself*

*orders a round of hot Glühwein for all from the next Christmas market*
southern 74 | 7,074  
1 Dec 2009 /  #327
that Germany had a 0% budget deficit.

Yes,visit a shop to see how Germans spend their money and then visit a mall in the US and you will understand why the deficit is such.
TheOther 6 | 3,674  
1 Dec 2009 /  #328
but I was most impressed by the report that Germany had a 0% budget deficit

Not anymore due to the recent crisis, but in the past the German government usually acted fiscally responsible. Keeping the deficit and inflation low, thus adhering to the EU rules.

visit a shop to see how Germans spend their money and then visit a mall in the US

There is a big difference between a German and an American consumer: Americans are much more willing to pile up (credit card) debt than the financially conservative Germans. Don't know why, but it might have to do with the "keeping up with the Jones' " syndrome.
OP pawian 221 | 24,014  
18 Dec 2009 /  #329
Germany pledges 60 million for Auschwitz upkeep
17.12.2009 11:12
Germany is to allocate 60 million euros for the maintenance of the Auschwitz death camp museum in southern Poland. The decision was taken on Wednesday by Chancellor Angela Merkel and regional leaders in Germany.

Regional governments will provide 30 million euro for the upkeep of the Auschwitz museum, said Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, Juergen Ruettgers.
The Auschwitz museum has estimated that it needs around 120 million euros for maintenance and modernization of the former Nazi death camp. Until now, the Auschwitz-Birkenau museum has been maintained mainly from funds from Poland’s state budget and its own revenue. Foreign aid in 2008 accounted for approximately just five percent of its total budget.

(pg)


==================================================================

EU cash cow
18.12.2009 11:04

Poland has received enormous financial support from the European Union in 2009, writes the Rzeczpospolita daily.
The country will spend almost 5.5 billion euro from EU subsidies this year, which is two thirds more than in 2008. Thanks to EU funds and money from the budget, Poland has managed to make investments worth over 8 billion euro.

Most of the EU financial sources were devoted to the development of infrastructure – roads, railways and airports, as well as modernization of universities, support for small and medium-size companies and vocational training for the unemployed.

“EU funds helped create a lot of work places,” comments Ernest Pytlarczyk from BRE Bank. High European subsidies, which equal 3 percent of Poland’s GDP, also helped boost Polish economy and avoid recession, writes Rzeczpospolita. Since Poland’s access to the European Union in 2004, the country has received almost 16 billion euro.


erm! where's the link ?
Torq  
19 Dec 2009 /  #330
“EU funds helped create a lot of work places,” comments Ernest Pytlarczyk from BRE Bank. High European subsidies, which equal
3 percent of Poland’s GDP
, also helped boost Polish economy and avoid recession, writes Rzeczpospolita.

I have to say that Mr. Pytlarczyk's Mathemathics teacher in Primary School has done
an appalling job.

Polish GDP in 2008 was roughly 570 billion euro, and we received about 3.6 billion
euro from EU subsidies which amounts to about 0.63% of our GDP.
Even if we take this year's figures (5.5 billion subsidies) - it won't even be 1%
of Polish GDP.

It is also worth pointing out that 3.6 billion that we received last year divided
by 38 million Poles equals 94 euro/year - that's 25 eurocents a day per capita.

As much as I like our EU friends and as much as I appreciate their help, I think we
can safely say that Poles would be quite fine even without this 25 cents a day
and that the quality of out lives are not THAT significantly improved by receiving
this 25 cents :-)

When we add to that the money that Poland has to pay to the common EU budget
(about 2.4 billion euro), the enormous cost of supporting the army of civil servants
necessary to enforce EU's laws and policies (some of them quite absurd) and the
limitations that the membership puts on our economy (in terms of taxes for example),
then we can clearly see that all this talk about how much Poland benefits from being
a EU member is nothing more than fairy tales.

Most people in Poland see this, but they think that at least our people can work
in some of EU countries and that's the only benefit we really get from the membership.
However, those people have to ask themselves if exporting 3 million, mostly young,
people is such a great thing for a country with as low a birthrate as Poland's.

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