Return PolishForums LIVE
  PolishForums Archive :
Posts by Avalon  

Joined: 11 Sep 2007 / Male ♂
Warnings: 1 - S
Last Post: 16 Feb 2016
Threads: Total: 4 / In This Archive: 1
Posts: Total: 1,068 / In This Archive: 210

Displayed posts: 211 / page 3 of 8
sort: Latest first   Oldest first   |
Avalon   
2 Dec 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Wroclaw Boy

He/she? is stating what he/she wants, it has nothing to do with anything that is factual, the reality of the situation is not acceptable to them so they live in a fantasy world where all the suppliers,give them everything at less than cost price.

This person will never have anything because they cannot comprehend, simple business practices such as profit and loss. There was such a system here around 20 years ago but I think it failed.
Avalon   
2 Dec 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Construction
latest reports
Construction sector in Poland, H2 2009 Comparative regional analysis and development forecasts for 2009-2012

2009-11-25

Signs of recovery on housing market

Business has been much brisker on Poland's resale market in recent weeks. Banks have been offering promotions on mortgages and terms are overall more attractive than a few months ago, according to a report compiled by the firm Expander and the web service szybko.pl.

In October 2009 prices in seven cities in which the average topped PLN 5,500/m² (€1,325/m²) slipped by 0.4%. Property values declined the most in Katowice during this period, slipping by 1.5%. On the other hand, prices only increased in Poznan (1%) and Gdynia (0.1%). Construction plots were also cheaper - prices fell the most in Warsaw (-15.2%), Krakow (-5.6%), Poznan (-4.8%) and Wroclaw (-3.4%).

In November this year the average margin on zloty-denominated mortgages fell for the first time since March. It currently stands at 2.6%, as compared with 2.8% for the last seven months. The terms for euro-denominated mortgages have also improved – the average margin has been cut from 3.5 to 3.35%, and the average interest rate has declined from 4.49 to 4.15%.

End of story.

You can delete the these facts admin, there is no discussion here, just multiple posts from a very sad person, which, you seem to encourage.
Avalon   
1 Dec 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

This is complete rubbish.

Hey Andy, do you notice that whenever you ask these people to provide proof of their statements, they never answer?, they just leave it a few days and then come back with more unsubstantiated comments. It must be a Polish trait, if in doubt, lie.
Avalon   
1 Dec 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

I work at an accounting firm

As a cleaner?

Further I teach some Real Estate agents that said the same flats are being sold for 4k and change.

Even if flat prices dropped to this level (and you have provided no proof or supplied any links to show this is so), its still 5 times higher than our knowledgeable friend

kowalski2007, also known as, Emil Kowalski, Claituslux, popw, Claritus sux, popwasser, Polsky, Specialpolak, special-Polak, Mcduff, Michaelas, Tadeausz2007, spimowitzss, has stated in their numerous, spamming, posts. I may be name calling, but, I am not name changing.

You are just talk and a name caller and bearing false witness.

Exactly my point, numbnuts.
Avalon   
30 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Admin, you cannot educate pork. If you are going to allow this continual spamming, I will stay away from PF, its getting boring now. You cannot have a useful discussion when this idiot is allowed to keep using different names to spout garbage.
Avalon   
30 Nov 2009
Real Estate / Mortgage default rates in Poland [10]

Gazeta.pl > Gazeta Wyborcza

"Bankers reassure that, according to the report, the default rate is the highest in cash loans, where it's approximately at 10 percent. As far as mortgage loans are concerned, accounting for half of Poles' total household debt, 'only' 1.13 percent borrowers were in default as of May this year."

This is only up until June, 2008.
Avalon   
29 Nov 2009
Life / Me and my Polish girlfriend divorced - Marriage annulment [8]

Floripa

Perhaps your girlfriend wants to resume being part of the RC church in case you have children. As a divorcee, no matter who's fault the breakup of her original marriage, she cannot accept holy communion unless she gets the church divorce. This may seem old fashioned to many but it is the law of the church.

I personally do not agree with this as I am in the same situation as yourself, but, this could be the main resaon she is seeking this solution. My partner looked into this and you are correct in stating that it could take up to 2 years to obtain. Maybe you should ask her how important this is to her.
Avalon   
27 Nov 2009
Real Estate / What does 250,000 zl buy in Wroclaw? [30]

The problem I have with the estate agents taking a commission from the buyer and the seller is, just who, the hell, are the agents acting for?.......there is a huge conflict of interests and this should not be allowed. Imagine if both your wife and yourself had to use the same lawyer for divorce?
Avalon   
24 Nov 2009
UK, Ireland / Exploiting Polish Workers by the UK businesses [90]

What was discussed previously is irrelevant, the actual decision was made by Labour in 2004
or do you want to go back prior to 1973 (Tory government) when the UK joined the common market after telling everyone it was a "trade agreement"
Avalon   
24 Nov 2009
UK, Ireland / Exploiting Polish Workers by the UK businesses [90]

Seanus

Free movement was established A LONG time ago and it wasn't Gordon Brown that just thought it up.

So which political party was in power when Poland was admitted to the EU?
Avalon   
24 Nov 2009
UK, Ireland / Exploiting Polish Workers by the UK businesses [90]

scotay

In reality you lot are only here to do the crap jobs nobody will do in the UK.

And which Scottish Prime Minister and his Labour party invited them?

I was reading a newspaper in a bar in Poland in February of 2004, the the artical was a quote by the then foriegn minister, David Blunkett, who stated that around 11-13,000 people from Eastern Europe were expected to travel to the UK to look for work.

I nearly fell of the barstool laughing, there were that many planning to go, just from the town I was in.
Avalon   
24 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Well said WB, but the Polish mentality is to live in the towns or cities. It is not fashionable to live a 10 minute ride out in the country, too much trouble to drive into town, and yet, on Sundays, they will drive around all day using up petrol.

Have you noticed how Polish drivers park right outside of the doors of supermarkets/shops, ignoring the parking bays because that would involve a 10mtr walk to the entrance...lol...or, they park across the back of you when you are in a marked bay, blocking you in, because they think they will be out quicker than you.
Avalon   
24 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

convex

so, you've got say a 47m2 apartment in wroclaw going for 319,000pln. That's fairly modest, not luxury, in a flat built in 1976 on the outskirts of town. With 20% down on a 20 year note, that gives us a monthly mortgage payment of around 1900pln a month on the low end. Mind you, that is with 70,000pln paid up front.

Built in 1976 and still priced at 6,750m2, is overpriced, agreed.

Gross average (not median) wages per month in Q3 09 is 3332/mo, which putting it into the calculator gives me 2064/mo net. Granted that's not household income,

Polish people do not usually buy apartments for single occupation.

It is difficult to see housing price increases to continue without real median wage increases.

Agreed, but only for existing housing stock. Developers will not build new unless they can make a profit.

The government is doing a great job keeping the zloty low and stimulating growth and FDI while controlling inflation.

Agreed.

It seems to be happening in Slovakia at the moment after the adoption of the euro. Slovaks quickly found that they had way more purchasing power, but then they got bit by the exodus of manufacturing jobs

That explains why they cross the border every weekend to do their shopping in Poland where it is cheaper. Since adopting the Euro, their prices have increased by 15%.

Gradual correction of overvaluation is not a bad thing. Weak speculators will be killed off for making unsound investments.

Agreed and hopefully this will happen.

I'll do it again if government steps in to prop up housing prices (drop those rates!).

The government could do this at a stroke of a pen, simply abolish VAT on all new housing as in the UK. Loss of any VAT would be recouped many times over by the taxes paid by jobs created, investment would be stimulated and the money would be spent in Poland.
Avalon   
24 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

The only problem I can see with your post, is that you are refering to the US where prices are totally different to Poland. Cars and fuel are half the price and you do not have VAT at 22% on all goods. I believe you have a 6% sales tax. If you have ever been to Poland, you will notice that 95% of the houses/apartments were built during the communist era and therefore do not meet social and energy efficiency standards, most of the existing housing stock is dire and needs replacing even if 2-3 million Poles decide to emigrate.

Not everything revolves around what happens in the US, except financial fraud and wars.
The price of your building materials there are not really relevant to the people here in Poland.
Avalon   
20 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

bolek

"Thats only chicken feed, when you dealing with a million zlote property."

Yes, it is only chicken feed, but the property I was refering to was around a third of that price and for the 1000 PLN, I have never before seen such a comprehensive survey. It included pictures/plans of the property, charts showing prices that similar properties had sold for over the previous 2 years in the same area and it even valued each tree and shrub in the gardens, including a value per m2 of the lawned area. As a builder for 35 years in the UK, it took me 2 years in Poland to find a property that was built to my satisfaction. You would not believe the crap I had to look at before I found what I wanted.

I think that you will find that the prices you refer to in the US for the cheaper houses is probably because:-

a) They are built someway outside of the city centres where land is a lot cheaper but the road infastructure is good. Because of cheap fuel and cars, 100 miles to an American is "just down the road".

b) Unless you go for the more expensive property, the house will be constructed with timber frame and cladding which is nowhere near as solid or long lasting as those constructed in Europe. If you actually look at pictures of American suburban estates, they seem to be laid out more like an army barracks

c) All materials are mass produced, ie: walls (external/internal) and roof trusses. Roof coverings are usually shingle/felt which have a short life expectancy and need constant monitering. Houses are designed to use fitted, preproduced, segments which are always in production.

b) Most of the labour costs of construction are kept low by using cheap, Mexican labour. Not that they are not good tradesmen, they are simply paid a fraction of what a white american would get.

c)Costs of living are a lot lower in the US compared to the UK so construction workers are actually paid less than their British counterparts.

Its a similar story now in the UK with the Polish workers accepting much less than the British construction workers. When I closed down my company in the UK some 5 years ago, labourers (unskilled) wanted £12.00. per hour, bricklayers/plasterers £17.00 and carpenters (if you could find any) were looking for £25.00.and they all wanted to work a 6 hour day. I tried to employ some Polish workers in may of 2004 when Poland entered the EU, but, my English workers would not tolerate this as they knew that they would be "shown up" and would have to do a days work for a change.

You only have to refer to the regular newscasts for what happens to these houses in tornadoes and high winds, they flatten like pancakes as there is no real structural support.

At the end of the day, you get what you pay for.
Avalon   
19 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

bolek

"Many forum members made a terrible loss in the Polish Real Estate market, no need to rub the salt in though, keep in mind if you take into account the exchange rate of the US dollar and zlote, property has gone down 25% not taking into consideration any other factors..."

I was not trying to "rub in the salt", merely trying to point out that this poster who uses about 8 different alias's on PF, seems to have a specific agenda for spouting inaccurate facts regarding the subject of property on this forum. I enjoy any discussion on this subject as I have been involved in construction/investing for 35 years, in Spain, the UK and Poland, which, I think qualifies me to contradict the posts of this person.

I bought my house here in Poland in 2005 and used a proffessional local surveyor to inspect the building and give me a "true" valuation in comparison to similar houses in the area. This service cost me 1000 PLN and saved me 20,000 PLN on the asking price. At the height of 2007 the value of the house rose substantially but this year if I sold, I would have to accept a lower price, but, it would still exceed what I paid. This is totally irrelivant as I bought the house to live in, not to make a profit.

Indeed, I took out a mortgage in CHF and last year watched my repayments rise by 20% a month, these have now settled down to what they were previously. Even with my experience, it is possible to get caught out at times, but waiting for changes in the markets caused by the hysteria of the media, is not an option if you need somewhere to live. If these so called experts could really fortell the rise and fall of prices, they would all be millionaires and have no need to work. If the banks were so clever at predicting the ups and downs of the property market, they would not have lost so much money investing in sub-prime mortgages.

All of life is a gamble, but you always need sustinance and somewhere to live. Would you not buy food for 2 months because the newspapers said the price will come down then?

As with all property purchases, use "common sense" and employ the services of a neautral "surveyor" to value and check the property out before you commit yourself to the biggest purchase you will make in your life.

End of sermon
Avalon   
18 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

SpecialPolak
nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/en/publikacje/inne/bank_i_kredyt/2008_08/laszek. html

Do you see the "2008/08" in this link!!!!! 15 months old!!! so where is the crash?
It was written at the height of the financial collapse, the same month as Leamen went bust!!!
What did you think a bank would write at that period of time?

Why do you bother posting this rubbish? Did you buy one of the expensive flats and get your fingers burnt?
Avalon   
17 Nov 2009
Real Estate / Prices of apartments in Krakow are collapsing further down in 2010-2011 [150]

polsky = Michaelas = Tadeusz2007 = Popw = clarituslux
and now Special-Polak, (all the same person) you should learn to vary the way you structure your sentences.

" House Price Bubbles on the Major Polish Housing Markets "

The article you quote is quite interesting, but, as usual, the devil is in the detail, which you do not seem to understand. Even the authours of this article, admit that it is very difficult to compare the Polish property market to any other as it has not been in existence that long. So, in other words, they are guessing.

"You will understand everything" ;)

As you put such "great store" in this article, you must realise how the contents disprove the rubbish you have written in previous posts under all the different alias's that you use.

You have quoted developers profits in Krakow at 600-1200%, yet table 14 (although this refers to Warsaw, I assume Krakow is similar) in this article shows a maximum profit of 100%. You have also stated in a previous post that the developers cost per m2 is around 300 PLN, the same table 14 shows the developers cost at 5000 PLN m2 inc. land, VAT etc, so by stating that a new flat/house should cost a maximum of 200,000 PLN, this will buy you 40m2 with no profit for the developer? No one has disputed the fact that apartments have been built, purely for the rich and foreign clients who were/are willing to pay over the top prices, that is their choice.

The article was written to cover the period from 2004 until March of this year, since, which, unlike the rest of the EU, Poland has not been in a recession (the only EU member to remain in Poistive GDP) and the banks have always been strict with their lending criteria and thus have not sustained the predicted huge losses as per the article and none of the major developers have gone bankrupt either.

I will refer you to the last 3 paragraphs of the article you quote:-

"Another factor of the analysis is the assessment of future trends in the housing market. In the optimistic variant, developers have over 60% of projects sold which will enable them to spread sales and profit realization over the period of 2-3 years and wait for fundamental demand to drive sales of the existing housing stock. Prices will fall by 10% and, combined with inflationary depreciation, will slightly boost demand. Speculative investors will rent flats, or, if they are in a good financial condition, they will wait through the difficult period. A considerable decline in investment outlays will take 2-3 years.

In the pessimistic variant, bad economic condition of property developers and investors,
combined with further fall in demand as a result of deteriorating general economic situation will lead to devastating competition in the housing market. As a result, prices will see a deep fall, at least by 30%. Such large house sales will, however, lead to a strong recovery in demand, and the market will regain its balance within a year. A fall in investment outlays will take 1-1.5 years.

The in-between variant assuming a price fall of 15-20%, a gradual recovery in demand and the market regaining its balance within 1.5-2 years, seems the most likely. Investment outlays are likely to be expected. Such a variant would lead to the worsening in housing portfolio quality, albeit without a significant impact on the banking sector stability. Also the resulting decline in GDP would not be significant".

As per my previous posts regarding this thread, I agree that there will be a correction in prices on existing properties but there will not be a massive crash in prices. There will however be a shortage of new properties on the market as developers will keep new projects in abeyance until such time as the market improves.

If you are going to continue to post inane drival on PF, then at least learn about the subject first.
Avalon   
8 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

polsky

#62
Prices dropped, in some cases, by as much as 50%.

Again, you are referring to the price of land/plots. What has this got to do with houses/flats, that are already built?......there is no indication that prices for property have dropped by 50%

The cost of labour and materials to build properties is not going to fall by 50%, this is just wishful thinking on your part.
Avalon   
8 Nov 2009
Real Estate / Prices of apartments in Krakow are collapsing further down in 2010-2011 [150]

polsky

#27
"Supply is outstripping demand on Poland's real estate market when it comes to investment plots. This trend in turn has triggered a sharp downward trend in prices, according to a report compiled by Colliers International."

So, plots of land are not selling and could go down in price. Which should explain to you that,
nothing new is being built at the moment and that soon, there will be a shortage of new accommodation to buy. You contradict yourself on your other posts.
Avalon   
6 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Polsky..........you are the same person who has been "spamming" Polish Forums for the past week. You make unsubstantiated comments in order to provoke a response. Get a life.

posted by Avalon on Nov.06.2009

I posted just one message - this message. With clear arguments and study of the real estate markets. And almost every real estate expert agress with this. Few of the many arguments: I think everybody knows that for buying real estate you need to have DEMAND. RIght now there is just OVERSUPPLY from the 3-4 million poles working aborad, who never plan to return. Demand comes from people who usually pay with their wages, the credit from the bank. For an average wage of 2000 zlotych/month, bank allows you maximum 800 zl/month of payment for your mortgage. 800 zl/month for a credit of 20 years, equals 800 x 12 = 9600 zl / year equals maximum 200 000 zl (rounded in plus) for an apartment in Krakow. So that is the correct market price for a 2-3 rooms apartment (60-100 sq.m.) in Krakow: 200 000 zl Right now there are thousands of apartments for sale at absurd prices, and nobody is buying... (PS it seems that the only spammer is Avalon here)

posted by polsky on Nov.06.2009
Avalon   
6 Nov 2009
Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Claritaslux started this thread on the 28th October.

Polsky started a similar thread in the "Krakow Post" on 28th October stating that prices of flats would fall by 1000%.

What is this persons agenda?...surely they cannot enjoy being thought of as fools and idiots?